Book: Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes
Author: Morgan Housel
Genre: Self-help, psychology
Rating: ★★★
Buy now on Amazon
REVIEW
While many of the principles/mental models in this book might feel familiar to seasoned readers, Housel’s narrative approach keeps the content engaging.
TAKEAWAYS
Ch 2: Hanging by a thread
- Life hinges on small & random events, often with unpredictable outcomes
- Small actions compound into big results, making prediction challenging
- History’s turning points are shaped by consistent human behaviour, despite uncertainty
- People’s behaviour, greed, fear, opportunity, etc remains consistent
Ch 3: Risk is what you don’t see
- Risk is what’s left over after you think you’ve thought of everything
- Risk is what you don’t see
- Preparing for risks you can’t see is more effective than relying on specific predictions
- Save and plan for unforeseen risks, as overconfidence often leads to failure
Ch 6: Wild numbers
- People crave certainty but struggle to comprehend probabilities and uncertainty
- Probabilistic events can seem unlikely individually but are inevitable when aggregated over time
- Experts often fail in their predictions, yet humans continue to trust them due to a need for control
- True skill is shown over many outcomes, not just isolated results
Ch 9: Calm plants the seeds of crazy
- Stability is destabilising
- Stability breeds complacency, making systems vulnerable to disruptions
- Optimism leads to overshooting, causing boom-bust cycles
- Risk feels smallest when it’s actually largest
- Small risks perceived safety can blind preparedness
- Accepting that “crazy” cycles are normal helps navigate unpredictable markets or systems
Ch 15: Casualties of perfection
- There is always some inefficiency
- Evolution and nature prioritise “good enough” over perfection, balancing competing needs
- Pursuing efficiency or perfection often sacrifices creativity, adaptability, or critical thinking
- Wandering and downtime are essential for generating creative solutions in demanding fields
Ch16: It’s supposed to be hard
- No shortcuts to success, effort and discomfort are unavoidable
- Every job comes with pieces you don’t like. That’s part of it.
- Everything has a price, and the price is usually proportionate to the potential rewards. But there’s rarely a price tag. And you don’t pay the price with cash
- Success demands charge their fee in the form of stress, inefficiency, bureaucracy, doubt etc
- Accepting inefficiency helps you navigate the messy, imperfect realities of life
Ch 19: Harder than it looks and not as fun as it seems
- Everything is sales like crafting images, managing impressions, and overcoming struggles
- Public personas are filtered, everyone has unseen challenges & struggles
- Success comes from persistence & probability, not superhuman abilities
Ch 20: Incentives: the most powerful force in the world
- Incentives are the most powerful force in the world and can get people to justify or defend almost anything.
- Incentives drive behaviour more than advice or morality
- Incentives often lead to unexpected or irrational actions
- Beyond financial motivations, cultural and social incentives heavily influence choices, sometimes making them harder to resist
- Question how incentives shape your views to avoid being blindsided “Which of my current views would change if my incentives were different?” If you answer “none,” you are likely not only persuaded but blinded by your incentives.
- Crazy incentives create crazy behaviour which often last longer than expected.
Ch 22: Time horizons
- Expiring knowledge (ie temporary noise) often has limited value in the grand scheme of thing
- Long-term success requires enduring short-term struggles and being flexible
- Success over time requires patience, adaptability, and the buy-in of those around you
- Focus on permanent knowledge (ie timeless insights)
- Permanent knowledge compounds over time, unlike fleeting, expiring information
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